January 17th, 2007

Three Must See Games

This is not just a good week for football, it’s a great week!

Wednesday night is the warm up as the Dillon Panthers take on the undefeated Lions. Any hope for a chance at State hangs in the balance. Will Matt Saracen finally come into his own as QB? Will Tim Riggins stay sober? Can Smash Williams stay off the juice? And what will Coach Taylor do about that coaching offer at the University of Tennessee? I’m going to have to go with the Panthers, in a last second squeaker. Just a Hollywood hunch there.

If you are a Friday Night Lights fan, you know its football is almost as good as the real thing.

Wednesday’s episode had better be the best ever if it’s going to compete with this weekend however.

Last week my picks were 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Only two games to pick this weekend, but the two best games of the year.

The Saints vs. The Bears

It’s been rather perfect for New Orleans fans when it comes to their football team this year. They get their home field back. Their team re-ups on staying instead of leaving. Houston drops the ball in the draft so the Saints can pick Reggie Bush and 2005 Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees became somehow available. Last Saturday they won their first-ever home playoff game and now are going for their first-ever NFC title. I’d like to say the people of New Orleans are blessed, however the aerial shots tell a more tragic truth.

It would be almost impossible not to cheer for the New Orleans Saints considering their natural disaster worst-to-first performance. The betters are certainly in favor of their win giving them, at this writing, a 1 1/2 point bump.

Why is it so low? Brees led the league with 4,418 passing yards, throwing for at least 300 yards in eight of 16 regular-season games. He was named first-team All-Pro and finished second to San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson in MVP voting.

And he’s not even the Saints most potent weapon. Their inside threat, Deuce McAllister gained 143 yards on just 21 carries against the Eagles last week. And if he’s not gaining enough, Reggie Bush is ready to break one on the outside – and both of them can catch as well.

Sounds like it should be a walk to the Super Bowl, but there are problems on the other side of the ball.

Betting that Chicago’s QB Rex Grossman will have two good games in a row sounds like a long-shot. However his greatest strength is also New Orleans’ greatest weakness. They gave up an NFL-worst 16 completions for 40 or more yards in the regular season. They tied for 30th-worst with 26 passing touchdowns allowed.

You have to know that’s all they have been working on all week. Brees might have his arm thrown out with all the bombs he’s been dropping on his D.

It sounds like the key for them is to hold onto the ball as much as possible against the Bear’s suddenly suspect defense, something that they are best at in the NFL.

Saints 24 – Bears 21

The Patriots vs. The Colts

Or more specifically, Brady vs. Manning. These two allows us to skip all the concerns about coaching, special teams advantages defenses, and all that other football type stuff for this game, because their recent past indicates it will all come down to them.

Brady, 29, 6’4”, 225 lbs, got his first win against Manning, 30, 6’5”, 230 lbs., and won the next five meetings – two of which were on the road to the Super Bowl. Manning however has won the last two, and for the first time he’s facing Brady at home in a playoff game where the Colts are 9-0 this season. But then there is Brady again – who just happens to be 8-0 in domes.

Both are coming of sub-par games. Brady saved his team in the fourth quarter against the Chargers by completing 11 of 18 passes, including that 49-yarder to Reche Caldwell that led to the winning field goal. But his QB rating was only 57.6.

Manning’s was even worse at 39.6.

From all that, the uneducated would think the difference between these two is miniscule, but it’s not. Peyton Manning may get all the commercials, but Tom Brady gets all the rings. It’s three Super Bowls to zip for the Patriots QB, and this year it appears that trend is going to continue.

Over the past five seasons, the Colts have the best overall record in the NFL, the Patriots are second, winning only one less. This is the postseason however, and the differences there are simply astounding.

Peyton Manning is 5 and 6 when it matters most and Tom Brady is 12 and 1, the best playoff record ever. It’s tough to bet against that.

Patriots 28 – Colts 27
Cheers - Gavin McDougald - AKA Couch

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